As Play Goes, So Goes the Nation
February 5, 2004

by Chris Byrne

On February 15th, tens of thousands of toy industry people will descend on New York for the 101st annual American International Toy Fair. They'll be making their choices as to what will be in the stores at the end of the year. (Well, Target, Wal-Mart and Toys "R" Us already have a pretty good idea, to tell the truth.) But for many people who come to the show, this will be the first look at more than 160,000 new, continuing and revitalized toys that people hope consumers will want in 2004. Yet for all of this excitement, as the show approaches, there is one question on the minds of every manufacturer, retailer and media person: What's going to be hot?

The question is not: What are the best toys for children? Or, what are the most innovative uses of design, technology or story to inspire the intellectual growth or imaginations of children? There are, happily, plenty of those for those who care to look, but these toys may be overlooked because they do not have that one requisite component: "heat."

Heat has little to do with the toy itself, but it is something every contemporary toy marketer prays for because heat drives headlines, which drive stock prices and sell hundreds of thousands of units.

Heat is increasingly what it's all about, and last month at the toy show in Hong Kong, a representative of one of the major retailers stated unequivocally that the leading reason that sales of traditional toys in the U.S. declined in 2003 was because there was no "hot" toy for the holiday season. His logic, which is considered gospel in the toy industry, is that when there are one or two "must-have" items, consumers will either return to stores again and again where they won't leave empty-handed or they overbuy to compensate for not being able to score the hot toy. When we interview parents about why and what toys they buy, one of the fears they always express is that their child might be disappointed, and that is the one thing they want to avoid - nearly at all cost.

The modern U.S. toy industry - which we date from post-World War II and has been driven by the rise of media and the current perception of childhood as a time largely devoted to education and pleasure, and free of responsibility - has always reflected the culture at large. One need only look at the evolution of such classics as Barbie and G.I. Joe over their respective histories to see how our cultural perceptions of the roles of women and men (the expectations of them and the opportunities available to them) have changed in our culture. What has made these toys, and other classics, endure is that it is not the inert plastic but children's imaginations that have brought them to life. Toys play the dual role of providing an outlet for self-expression and allowing children to try on roles that will prepare them to take their places as adults in society.

It's no surprise then, for example, that over the past ten years even so-called traditional toys have become more technological. Technology is one of the driving forces in our culture. It's also no surprise that when we interviewed young people ages 8-11 last holiday season, topping their wish lists were not traditional toys but real cell phones and DVD players. These young people are eager to be "big," to take a place in the larger culture, and they have been conditioned to be consumers practically from the womb. They are also very specific about what they want, and they want what they perceive to be "hot."

Who can blame them? They live in a culture that is completely saturated with images of what is hot - whether movie stars, products, television shows, bodies and almost anything else consumable.

"Hot" has become one of the primary defining criteria of value within our culture - whether positive or negative. It can be a plasma TV, a high-profile trial, a politician or a toy.

"Hot" gets attention. "Hot" spurs desire. "Hot" generates headlines and elicits the kind of emotional responses that send sales through the roof. Yet to survive, "hot" must also change constantly, and the culture of "heat" gets its power not from the value of any product, person or perspective, but from its inherently mercurial nature. The culture of heat relies on the fact that "heat" can supplant thought. When all that matters is what's hot now, it's completely possible to overlook inconsistencies from politicians, or the fact that we may already have eight perfectly good pairs of black shoes, but "need" ones that feature this year's heel.

This is also the reality of the marketplace, and for adults, well, grown-up rules apply - caveat emptor and all that. For kids, though, encouraging them (either actively by example or passively by not paying attention) to value something solely because it's "hot" is fraught with dangers. In fact, "hot" is antithetical to the benefits of healthy play. Play in its best forms allows children to develop themselves as individuals, to explore and try on perceptions and their realities through their imaginations and within the context of the culture into which they are being socialized. Truth and learning come from within as the child experiences the consequences of his or her behavior in the outside world, again positively
or negatively.

This is separate and apart from the fashion-conscious nature of the toy business. Today's kids, like the adults and the media who have inculcated this value in them, are very aware of what's cool and what's desirable to own within the context of their peer groups. Yet, one of the remarkable things that we observe in many of the children we talk to is that they are very often quite independent in what they like. The boy who loves Yu-Gi-Oh! may want nothing to do with Beyblade, though both are what would be called "hot" right now. As parents and caregivers, it behooves us to know the individual child and to help create play experiences that allow him or her the power of self-expression through play using toys that resonate with them. Simply put, what we always say is, "The hot toy is only hot if it's hot for your child."

Of course, the concept of the "hot" toy is a relatively recent phenomenon in our culture. Historically, it wasn't necessary in the 1960s and 1970s when children watched one of three networks on Saturday mornings, and manufacturers could generate must-have desire and ensure a prominent place on letters to Santa largely through TV advertising. The fragmentation of the media marketplace over the last 15 years has meant that what advertisers call "breaking through the clutter" has become more and more difficult. And it's not just for toys. The same holds true for virtually any consumer product. Thus, becoming "hot" is the Holy Grail for marketers because it helps promote things. It makes good stories and, for TV, it helps ratings. Why else would the "Today" show devote several minutes to an interview with one of the stars of "ER" about a scene which showed the exposed breast of an eighty-year-old cancer victim that had been cut in the wake of the Janet Jackson Super Bowl "scandal"?

Now, this is neither good nor bad. It simply is. And rather than condemning the media for promoting its own products, which is tantamount to spitting in the wind, look at it for what it is. If you like, go for it. If you don't, change the channel. This is the way of the world today, just as it was in the 18th century when anyone with a printing press and a method of distribution could say whatever they wanted. (If you really want to be titillated by the desire to foment scandal, read what was written with apparent impunity about John Adams or Ben Franklin. Anything you'd see today about Martha Stewart, Rosie, Justin or Janet is bland by comparison.)

So, where does this leave us?

If anything, the promotion of "heat" as a value should be a call to us to become more thoughtful consumers, especially when it comes to toys and products for children. That said, there are many toys that will be deemed "hot" this year that will be wonderful toys, appropriate for certain kids and a great value. Buying those toys for an individual child based on those criteria is a real gift. That purchase reflects your values and your knowledge of a particular child and is likely to inspire longer-term play. The danger in acquiring something solely because it's "hot" is that it potentially derails the essential nature of the play process and emphasizes the external standard of "hotness" over the child's unique experience in bringing a toy to life, and giving it value. As one parent we interviewed last holiday season told us, the challenge is not finding good toys but finding toys children want for a reason other than it's "hot." "Even for the eight-year-olds, it's all about acquisition and ‘having,'" she said. "It's not about playing with a toy or even understanding it. It's about being able to tell your friends that you have it." That's when it's right for a parent to be concerned.

The long-term danger of the "hot" mindset is obvious. A generation of consumers conditioned to respond to what's "hot" is easily manipulated and at risk of abdicating independent thought and cogent analysis for a knee-jerk, emotional response to any situation. It will simply be enough to say something is "hot" to gain credibility. Given some of what is going on in the current political and media worlds that may be happening already.

Alarming as this potentially is, it's pointless to wring our hands and mourn for the bygone "old days." Children must be raised in the context of the contemporary culture in which they live. How else can they learn to navigate it as independent, thinking individuals? For parents and caregivers, that means paying attention and helping your children balance the attention on what is "hot" and desired for that which resonates with the values system you are trying to instill.

And as for the toys for 2004?

Happily, there are some wonderful toys coming this year. In fact, in 2004, if the previews we've seen are any indication, consumers are going to find more value (in new and familiar toys), a real focus on kids' experience and toys that will be meaningful to kids long after whatever "heat" they generate has cooled. As we start to look at the toys for this year, that's what really excites us - and we can look forward to sharing that excitement with you.